WisPolitics.com Election Blog

More than 200 visitors to WisPolitics.com submitted entries in this
year's election prediction contest. Averaged out, a solid majority of
respondents predicted a Democratic sweep on Tuesday.

In the presidential race, 83 percent predicted Barack Obama would win
the national race while 15 percent picked John McCain and a handful
picked either Libertarian Bob Barr or the Green Party's Cynthia
McKinney. A wider majority -- 94 percent -- predicted a Wisconsin win
for Obama.

In the 8th Congressional District rematch between Democrat Steve Kagen and
Republican John Gard, 83 percent picked Kagen and 17 percent picked
Gard.

The contest also asked respondents to guess the partisan breakdown in
the state Legislature. In the Assembly, 71 percent of respondents
predicted Democratic control, 5 percent predicted a tie (49 from each
party plus one independent) and 25 percent predicted it would remain in
Republican hands. In the Senate, 59 percent predicted a Democratic
majority while 41 percent predicted Republicans would take control.

-- By Staff

Labels: 2008 fall election

Barack Obama outspent John McCain 5-to-1 on TV ads in Wisconsin for the
week that ended Oct. 28, according to new numbers from the Wisconsin
Advertising Project.

Obama spent just more than $1 million in the state, while McCain spent
$202,000 here.

Nationally, Obama spent $21.5 million on TV for the week, and that does
not include the 30-minute spot he aired last Wednesday night on national
networks. McCain spent nearly $7.5 million nationally, while the RNC
kicked in another $6.7 million and independent groups spent $2.2
million.

Unlike past reports from the group, no Wisconsin media market made the
top 20 list for number of ads aired there for the week, another sign of how
the state is breaking for Obama. In some surveys, as many as four
Wisconsin markets have been in the top 20.

Other than Philadelphia/Harrisburg, the rest of the top 20 markets all
broadcast into states won by President Bush four years ago. The report
found almost three-fourths of the TV ads were aired in red states as
well with Obama spending just more than $15 million there and McCain
and the RNC combining for $11.3 million in ads in those states.

Iowa and North Carolina were the only states where McCain and the RNC
had combined to outspend Obama.

See the release for more details.

-- By Staff

Labels: 2008 fall election

In the pre-election, Halloween edition of "WisOpinion: The Show"
has the left's John Nichols and the right's Brian Fraley predicting a
closer-than-expected presidential race in a special prediction segment
and suggesting two possible upsets in legislative races they highlight
in the "risings and fallings" segment.

They also opine on the case against Supreme Court Justice Michael
Gableman and potential voter fraud in Tuesday's election in the weekly
"2-Minute Take."

Watch the newest edition of "WisOpinion: The Show":
http://www.madison.com/tct/opinion/theshow/311979

See old episodes:
http://www.madison.com/tct/opinion/theshow/

-- By Staff

Labels: 2008 fall election

From the national conventions all the way through the closing days of the election, the AFL-CIO's Sara Rogers squared off with lobbyist and former Thompson administration Commerce Secretary Bill McCoshen in a weekly recurring feature at WisOpinion.com. They debated topics ranging from the vice presidential picks to the race for the state Assembly.

Here's a list of the dates and topics they covered:

- 10/24: What does your candidate have to do in these final days to win on Nov. 4?
- 10/17: Who has the better ground game in Wisconsin, Democrats or Republicans?
- 10/10: Has the race for the Assembly changed, given recent developments on the economic and presidential fronts?
- 10/3: How does Kagen's vote on the bailout bill affect his re-election?
- 9/26: How important are the debates going to be for moving independent voters?
- 9/19: Is this a base vs. base election or do independents still rule in Wisconsin?
- 9/12: Who's winning the race for the state Assembly?
- 9/4: How will John McCain's VP selection affect the Wisconsin vote?
- 8/28: How will Barack Obama's VP selection affect the Wisconsin vote?
- 8/25: Where will independent voters go in 2008?

Labels: 2008 fall election