With plans already in place to cut more than $600 million in all funds from the state's health care programs, the state is facing potential cost overruns for the bienniums of up to $150 million in GPR for the BadgerCare Plus and Childless Adults Core Plan, according to an analysis by the Legislative Fiscal Bureau.

But the memo also notes pending federal legislation could result in additional federal matching dollars for medical assistance program from stimulus funds.

Enrollment in BadgerCare Plus has averaged 687,000 individuals per month this fiscal year, above estimates included in the budget that assumed enrollment averages of 638,000 in 2009-10 and 648,000 in 2010-11. As of Nov. 30, about 700,000 individuals were enrolled in BadgerCare Plus.

GPR cost overruns from the higher than expected enrollment could range from $100 million to $125 million, according to the LFB.

Enrollment in the Childless Adults Core Plan was closed on Oct. 9 due to demand. The program was budgeted for 24,900 enrollees in FY 2010 and 39,500 in FY 2011. As of Nov. 30, 55,000 individuals were enrolled in the program, and a cost overrun for the biennium is estimated at $20 million to $25 million.

The analysis notes that proposals in Congress could help mitigate those cost overruns. The federal health care reform bill passed by the House would provide $317 million in additional funds in FY 2011. The provision is not included in the bill currently being considered by the Senate, but the Senate has a separate bill that would provide a similar increase to the House proposal. But the LFB notes that whether either proposal "will become law cannot be said at this time."

Department of Health Services Secretary Karen Timberlake on Thursday will present to the Joint Finance Committee a 66-point plan to cut $608 million from the agency during the biennium as mandated in the biennial budget.

The plan includes delaying payments until 2011 and other one-time savings measures. Cuts to pharmacy costs, including saving $71.3 million by purchasing generic drugs, will provide $199.3 million in savings, according to the DHS plan. In addition, the plan proposes savings of $122.9 million through rate reductions to managed care programs.

See the LFB memo here.

The JFC will also be briefed Thursday on state use of federal funds made available through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

Testifying before the committee will be Department of Administration Deputy Secretary Dan Schooff, Associated General Contractors Executive Vice President Robert Barker and Wisconsin Transportation Builders Association Executive Director Patrick Goss.

The Transportation Builders reported last month that the 2009-11 state budget for transportation infrastructure and remaining federal stimulus projects will support more than 28,500 jobs in the state over the next year.

The Thursday JFC meeting will also include a handful of 13.10 requests. See LFB papers on the requests here.

-- By Greg Bump