Budget director, WTA prez at odds over deficit number
State budget director Dave Schmiedicke and Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance President Todd Berry have a fundamental difference over the state's budget deficit.
Schmiedicke says the bulk of the projected $5.4 billion budget shortfall is the result of crashing state revenues. Berry, a former assistant Revenue secretary, says the administration is "double counting" and the deficit is not nearly that large.
Schmiedicke said the difference between a revenue forecast done in June and this month is $3.5 billion. The balance of the $1.9 billion that makes up the rest of the deficit is the result of population growth in state institutions, caseload increases for state services like Medicaid and funding for pay increases already implemented for some state agencies, like the University of Wisconsin System.
"Everything we see is the result of the economy," he said.
But Berry says the numbers assume an 8 percent spending increase in the first year of the biennium based on state agency budget requests. That is a level that is unlikely to be met in the final budget bill, Berry said.
"State spending growth has averaged 3 to 4 percent since 1998. It's not going to rise 8 percent, and that's what this document is saying," he said.
But Schmiedicke said the $5.4 billion figure, which represents about 17 percent of the 2009-11 budget, is a real number.
"He's trying to parse the numbers in certain ways," Schmiedicke said of Berry's analysis.
Berry says he's not parsing. He said he's not suggesting the numbers from the Doyle administration "are cooked up or anything," but they follow a format that has been utilized by governors for years.
To arrive at the numbers the Doyle administration is offering, "The assumption you have to make here is the state will take absolutely no action for the next 31 months and let things ride and compound," Berry said.
"Regardless of who the is governor, regardless of their party identification, it is valuable for the chief executive to put on notice state employees, state agencies, the Legislature, and interest groups -- all of whom want more in the state budget -- that we are facing some difficult challenges, which we are. No one is disputing that," Berry said. "But there is a way that you can make this number sound bigger than the needed fix will be, and it will be in any governor's interest to strengthen his or her position going into a budget."



