An early post-election Political Stock Report
(Nov. 8, 2006)
See more in Friday's REPORT
Rising Dave Obey: The dean of the Wisconsin congressional delegation is poised to reclaim the chair of the House Appropriations Committee as he returns to the majority. Wisconsin institutions and projects, which already have benefited from his committee influence, could benefit more as well as the junior Dem members of the delegation -- Ron Kind, Tammy Baldwin, Gwen Moore and now, Steve Kagen, the new 8th CD rep from Appleton. Others say it would have been better for Wisconsin had GOP-er Tom Petri been in the majority and grabbed the Transportation Committee chairmanship. But with Dems firmly in control of the House, that possibility has passed. Dems now have a 5-3 edge in the House delegation.
See more in D.C. WrapJim Doyle: The much-maligned Dem guv, who gained office with 45 percent of the vote four years ago, now can claim something of a mandate, insiders say, after his bigger-than-expected 53 percent-45 percent win over Green Bay-area Congressman Mark Green. On top of that there are increased numbers of Dems in the Assembly and enough Dems in the Senate to take back control. That should ease the partisanized, government-by-veto atmosphere in the Capitol that permeated the first term and allow Doyle to play more offense than defense. Insiders and operatives on both sides of the aisle give him and his campaign kudos for running what many claim was a flawless race. Team Doyle quickly defined Green before Green could define himself, capitalized on the Elections Board PAC decision, skillfully used the stem cell and abortion issues to exploit the gender gap, and pushed other issues to lock in seniors and independents, they say.
J.B. Van Hollen: In the space of a few months, the affable Van Hollen has gone from little-known federal prosecutor to the top elected Republican in Wisconsin and some say a possible future guv candidate. His apparent, but narrow, victory over Dane Co. exec Kathleen Falk makes Van Hollen, also a former northern Wisconsin county DA who stressed crime-fighting, the first Republican to win the AG's office since Don Hanaway in 1986. Hanaway held the office for one term before losing to Doyle. Van Hollen was aided by millions in spending from business groups led by WMC, which labeled Falk early in a negative way. Republicans also credit Van Hollen with running a solid statewide campaign, delivering a simple, powerful message. In the end, it was the crime-fighter vs. the flawed bureaucrat and that was enough to win over enough Dems to buck the national trend.
Steve Kagen: Insiders were hard on the first-time candidate down the stretch, saying he may have frittered away his chance at Congress through verbal gaffes. But Kagen proved to be a good candidate and together with his personal cash and base in Appleton helped him ride the national Dem wave to a victory in the Republican-leaning 8th CD over Assembly Speaker John Gard. In the top 50 house races, the wealthy allergist ranked 41st nationwide with at least $2.1 million spent, at last report. Gard ranked 49th at $2 million. No. 1 was Florida Republican Vernon Buchanan at $5.9 million. But Kagen ranked fifth in self-funding nationally at $1.8 million with Buchanan No. 1 at $3.7 million.
See more in D.C. Wrap.Dem leggies: After years in the minority, Dem leggies have rebounded -- claiming four seats and an 18-15 majority in the state Senate (lost in 2002 on the heels of the Chuck Chvala indictment) and gaining at least seven and possibly eight seats in the state Assembly to drastically narrow the GOP's huge 60-39 advantage going into Tuesday. It's the first time Dems have gained seats in the state Assembly since 1990. Republicans have controlled the Assembly since the big Republican 1994 election. Now there's speculation the expected speaker in waiting, Mike Huebsch of West Salem, may not be able to muster the votes to lead the Assembly.
Negative advertising: The election results appear to say once again that negative advertising works. Examples 1 and 2 -- Doyle's negative label on Green, and the business community's negative label on Falk. Falk's ad against Van Hollen, however, was viewed by some voters as over the top or not credible. Voters experienced a blizzard of negative ads this year, but apparently they didn't quell turnout, as some had speculated. Turnout was estimated at about 51.2 percent -- the biggest since 1970 for a non-presidential year.
MixedDeath penalty advocates: They get a thumbs-up from the electorate on reinstating the death penalty. But the emerging power structure at the Capitol discourages backers from getting too excited about the possibility of legislation passing. Dems will run the Senate, where Republican Alan Lasee occupies a seat, and Doyle has promised a veto if death penalty reinstatement arrives on his desk.
FallingKathleen Falk: After her primary victory over Peg Lautenschlager, fans talked about her breezing into the AG's office and then running for guv four years later. Now, given her two statewide defeats (this and the 2002 guv's primary), her statewide chances are dismissed by insiders. Also, would-be successors maneuvered to run for her Dane Co. exec post. Now, unless she quits for another job, they'll have to wait until her term is over.
Jack Voight: The likeable state treasurer from the Fox Valley, who had been the GOP's top statewide elected official for the past four years, got blindsided by the national Dem tidal wave. In his low-profile race, a wave of Dem voters elected Dawn Marie Sass in a narrow victory. Voight was first elected in 1994, another election that followed national trends.
Fair Wisconsin: Despite spending at least $3.5 million this year and running months of advertising, the group formed to defeat the gay marriage ban in the constitution failed in every county but two. But Fair Wisconsin is being credited by some with boosting Dem turnout on college campuses that could have contributed to Doyle's margin and Dem legislative victories.
Ed Thompson: Tommy's brother gained 10 percent of the vote as a Libertarian in 2002. This year, he stayed out of the race until the very end, staging an oddly timed write-in campaign that appeared to have little effect on the guv's race outcome.
WTMJ-TV: The Milwaukee TV station, which has done exit polling for many years, gets roasted for its early declaration Election Night that Falk and Doyle would win. The polling apparently was only half right. One TV official says the exit poll was right all the way through except for Falk and could offer no clear explanation.
Robert Lorge: The little-known attorney from central Wisconsin becomes Herb Kohl's latest victim. Largely abandoned by traditional Republican organizations and operatives, Lorge fought a lonely e-mail and press release campaign against Kohl, the millionaire Milwaukee Bucks owner who nonetheless spent at least $5.4 million -- much of it his own money -- on TV ads and a professional campaign that helped him up his re-election margin. Six years ago, he won with 61.5 percent of the vote; this year, he won with 67 percent of the vote.
