Gov. Jim Doyle has promised he'll fill a $1.6 billion budget hole without raising taxes while insisting he'll still find a way to live up to his campaign pledges to create new tax breaks for college tuition, child care and health insurance premiums.
But that doesn't leave him many options for fixing the shortfall, according to budget-watchers who spoke with WisPolitics this week.
"He really doesn't have very much room to maneuver," another lobbyist said. "Since the election, he almost seems to be taking things off the table instead of leaving them on."
That includes Doyle's dismissal of a recent proposal from Sen. Jon Erpenbach, D-Middleton, to eliminate sales tax exemptions in order to help school funding and property tax relief.
For Doyle's part, so far he's been giving few clues about his strategy. More may emerge in coming weeks as Doyle widens a statewide swing to discuss the state budget, health care and other second-term priorities. His first was in Cudahy, followed by an event in Green Bay. Further listening sessions are scheduled for Wausau and Eau Claire next week.
See a Wisconsin Eye webcast of the first listening session in Cudahy:
http://www.wiseye.orgToday at Madison Area Technical College, Doyle said it was too early to speculate on how he will close the gap, but he doesn't think he'll have to redirect funds from transportation to fill the hole.
"Those decisions all have to get made as we get closer to my introduction of the budget," said Doyle.
Hear the audio clip:
http://www.wispolitics.com/1006/061208Doylebudgetquote.mp3At MATC, Doyle reiterated his commitment to make BadgerCare coverage available to every child in the state, with families paying what they can on a sliding scale according to income. He also said he would continue to look for community-based options for caring for the elderly and disabled needing long-term care, and said he would allow individuals and families to deduct the full cost of their health insurance premiums on their taxes.
Doyle also said he looks to at least continue the state's $600 million biennial subsidy for child care, and would again push to institute a rating system for daycare centers.
On higher education, Doyle said the state's commitment to financial aid has more than doubled in the last four years, and he is committed to at least continuing current levels, and expanding tax deductibility for college tuition to the level of UW-Madison tuition as well as allowing tax deductibility for college textbooks and fees.
"There's plenty of speculation going on about the budget, but it is all premature at this point," Doyle spokesman Dan Leistikow said. "The governor will announce details of the budget after he's decided them, not before."
The general consensus among the lobbyists and interest group representatives who spoke to WisPolitics.com this week is Doyle won't go after shared revenue or propose any increases in sales, income or corporate tax rates, something administration officials have already indicated.
Doyle used transfers from the Patients Compensation Fund and the Transportation Fund to close a $3.2 billion shortfall in the last budget, accounting tricks some lobbyists said would be hard to fathom him trying again.
"If he does, that would be a 'wow,'" one lobbyist said.
Another lobbyist agreed transfers aren't a viable option based on the legislators that Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch, R-West Salem, appointed to the Joint Finance Committee.
"Huebsch has sent his staunch conservatives to counteract the Senate and the governor," he said.
But at least a couple lobbyists think Doyle will use the Patients Compensation Fund again.
"From a long-term perspective - the approach the governor has taken in the last few budgets isn't good," one of them said. "From a re-election perspective, it was the smart way to do it."
Doyle made some of his intentions for the upcoming budget clear on the campaign trail, including his proposed tax breaks. The guv also wants to continue paying for two-thirds of the cost of K-12 public education, overhaul Medicaid, and pump money into efforts to promote job growth in manufacturing and high-tech industries.
One lobbyist expects revenue projections to grow before the budget is introduced in February, potentially filling one-third of the hole. But the lobbyist added: "That all gets eaten up if he maintains two-thirds" funding for public education. Unless Doyle finds new revenue through some kind of tax or fee increase, "you'd have to deny every agency request in the first year," which would ultimately lead to a property tax increase as schools struggle to make up for the loss, one lobbyist said.
"I think they're going to go to fees," one lobbyist said. "Neither the governor nor Republicans mentioned fees during the entire campaign."
Budget requests from state agencies provide some clue of what fees may not go up, such as those for hunting and fishing, which the DNR is not seeking to raise this time around. But the agency wants to raise boating registration fees anywhere from $5 to $23, depending on boat size, and charge campers between $1 and $3 more at most state parks. The DNR also wants to increase the 50-cent per ton tipping fee on hazardous waste disposal to $1.50 per ton.
Some hunters and sportsmen are pushing the state to find additional funding sources for the agency's wildlife fund, such as a special license plate, requiring licensing for recreational trailers or implementing a 1/8 of one percent sales tax to generate money for wildlife and tourism programs.
Leistikow said it was too early to say whether any of those suggestions would be included in the budget Doyle submits to lawmakers.
Another lobbyist said fees will have to be part of the solution for Doyle.
"He could be more aggressive than he has been in that area," the lobbyist said.
DOT proposed increasing vehicle registration fees to $80 from $55, but Doyle has said he doesn't support that large of a hike. He said during the campaign he would support a $10 hike in the license plate fee, and has repeated that since he won re-election. One lobbyist suspected the proposed $25 increase was part of the administration's strategy.
"That's raising it to $10 and looking like a hero in doing it," the lobbyist said. "It is a harbinger of things to come as far as fees go."
Doyle will likely get some help from Democrats in the Senate on fee increases. Joint Finance Committee Co-Chair Russ Decker, D-Weston, has proposed increasing the registration fee for semis, which hasn't gone up in a decade.
But fees alone won't get the job done, budget-watchers said.
"Truthfully, that doesn't raise you a lot of money," one lobbyist said.
Doyle has said he'll consider backing a cigarette tax increase from 77 cents to $1 if the hike is dedicated solely to paying for treating smoking-related illnesses, smoking cessation programs and keeping kids from smoking. Even though that would go against his promise not to raise taxes, it might sit OK with voters, lobbyists said.
"It's way more popular with voters than increasing the gasoline tax," one lobbyist said.
The lobbyist said Doyle is unlikely to put the proposal in his budget bill but could convince Senate to add it to give him some political cover.
"That's how I'd do it," the lobbyist said.
Another lobbyist said Doyle has "boxed himself in," and the end result will be a tax increase of some kind.
"There's not a lot of options," the lobbyist said. "I don't think he can make good on all his promises."
Doyle supports adopting streamlined sales tax guidelines, which would adopt standards for Internet and catalog retailer to collect sales taxes. But one lobbyist said the revenue the effort would yield "small potatoes" in the larger context of the whole state budget.
Revenue Department officials estimate the change would bring in an additional $4.8 million by 2009.
Doyle's proposed tax breaks have an estimated $157.2 million price tag, but lobbyists said the guv could phase those in over time so he gets credit for providing them without having to worry about how to pay for them in this budget.
The same can be said for Doyle's proposal to offer a "covenant" promising low-income eighth graders financial assistance to attend college if they keep up their grades, take college prep courses and stay out of trouble. Today, Doyle said his figures show the covenant program would add about $10 million to the state's current college financial aid commitment. "To me, that's about as good a $10 million investment as you could ever make," he said.
"It's going to be a few years before the real costs kick in, in terms of covering some of the tuition," a lobbyist said.
Another lobbyist speculated Doyle could turn to the state's Native American tribes for more revenue under their tribal gaming compacts with the state.
"Does a Beloit casino or a Kenosha casino become the means to balance this budget?" he said.
And yet another lobbyist suggested Doyle could move to re-securitize the state's tobacco settlement, which would generate $1 billion in one-time dollars. But one of his peers doubted Doyle would go that route since he fiercely criticized former Gov. Scott McCallum for using tobacco money to balance the budget.
"I think that would be really, really far-fetched," he said.
In the end, Doyle and lawmakers might keep everyone guessing.
"You'll have 8,000 hearings and meetings ... in the last 24 hours they decide," a lobbyist said. "It all comes fast and furious at the end -- that's when you'll see the price tag and how it's paid for. Until then, everything's on the table."