Split Control of Legislature Evokes Visions of Stalemate
Gov. Jim Doyle has yet to introduce his next two-year budget plan. But Capitol observers already are expecting a long slog through the Joint Finance Committee for the 2007-09 budget, bracing for a series of 8-8 stalemates in the panel split down the middle between Democrats and Republicans.
Plus, a legislative conference committee to iron out the differences between Dem-controlled Senate and GOP-controlled Assembly versions before it goes back to the governor is inevitable, say the observers.
"I think it's going to take a long time to get the budget done," said one veteran budget watcher.
"It depends on if there's another Kevin Shibilski out there," quipped another observer, referring to the 2002 deliberations over the budget reconciliation act.
The JFC was split 8-8 that year as well, and Shibilski, the former Dem senator from Stevens Point, broke with his party and voted for a GOP package said to ``fix'' the deficit.
Many point to the vote as the beginning of the end of Shibilski's career as an elected pol, although he went on to run for lieutenant guv and then become Doyle's first Tourism secretary.
"There are going to be a lot of 8-8 votes likely," said the observer. "It will be an interesting process of getting to nine votes."
Dem wins this fall have again produced split control of the Legislature and with it the JFC. Republicans had controlled both houses over the past four years, and lawmakers approved their versions of the last two budgets without a conference committee, presenting a mostly unified front against the first-term Dem guv.
The split control could recreate the atmosphere of 2001-03 budget and the 2002 budget repair bill. Both required a conference committee to hammer out a final version that passed both houses and could be sent to the governor.
"Conventional wisdom says it's a foregone conclusion," said another observer on the chances of a conference committee. "Maybe it can be avoided if they look over their shoulders and say, 'We were sent here with a fairly large margin of people who voted for reform, so let's stop the partisanship.'"
Both of the newly elected JFC co-chairs, Dem Sen. Russ Decker of Weston and GOP Rep. Kitty Rhoades of Hudson, said they have a good working history together. Both served on the committee together during the past session.
"We are both reasonable people and can identify our priorities," Rhoades said.
Decker said he's gotten along with most Republicans with whom he has served on the committee, including Rhoades and former Assembly GOP co-chairs Dean Kaufert and John Gard.
"We didn't always see eye to eye, but when it came down to it we sat down and got to work," Decker said.
Decker optimistically predicted that the JFC can wrap up its budget work by the end of May "if we can sit down and work like we have in the past."
While they admit that Rhoades and Decker make a good working pair, skeptics point to the mixture on the committee could produce a contentious atmosphere.
Some see the potential for conservative Assembly Republicans like Reps. Steve Kestell, Scott Suder and Dan Meyer, who represent rural areas, to clash with more liberal members, including Sen. Lena Taylor and Rep. Pedro Colon, both of Milwaukee, and Sen. Mark Miller and Rep. Mark Pocan, both from Dane County.
Those conflicts set up the potential for an 8-8 quagmire throughout the process.
"I think initially they'll kind of throw their weight around and try to wave conservative flags and wave their liberal flags," said the veteran budget-watcher. "I imagine that Kitty and Decker will work together in the end, but there are so many far-right conservatives and far-left liberals, there are going to be some battles."
Getting the work done will depend a lot on what kind of budget Doyle turns over to them in February. Republicans credit Doyle with sticking to fiscal matters in past budgets.
"The reason we got away from putting policy in the budget is because when he was running for governor he said he would not put policy in the budget, and to his credit he has somewhat stuck to that," said incoming Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch, R-West Salem. "If he does, I would expect the legislators in a bipartisan fashion would work to remove that."
Doyle said this morning the appointment of Michael Morgan as DOA Secretary shouldn't delay him from handing over the budget, but said he may ask legislators for an extension, as has been the custom.
"We may well be asking our Legislature for a week extension or so," he said.
There are a number of potential minefields that could erupt and waylay the budget. It's expected that the Transportation Fund will be a major sticking point, as Republicans continue to wonder if the governor will again "raid" the fund to pay for other programs.
This week in a radio interview, Senate Minority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, R-Juneau, indicated that there could be a battle over a gas tax increase. Doyle said Wednesday that he too believes it's too early to bring back indexing.
There's also likely to be a fight over the DOT proposal to raise license plate registration fees for cars from $55 to $80. Doyle has said that is too high, and that an increase of $10 is more likely to be in his budget.
Decker said this week that he may propose an increase in the registration fee for semi-trucks to shore up the state's transportation fund.
Doyle has also distanced himself from Dem Sen. Jon Erpenbach's proposal to remove sales tax exemptions from a number of services. Doyle, speaking with reporters after a town hall meeting in Cudahy Wednesday, said consumers ultimately pay for sales tax exemptions that are lifted. He said he'd be open to proposals to shift the burden off property taxpayers but he would like to see a guarantee that it would provide property tax relief.
"You end up just paying more sales tax and then over the next couple of years your property taxes continue to go up," Doyle said. "I obviously am not going to go along with anything like that."One observer said the speed of the JFC's work will also depend on whether there is anyone from either party who will cross the line.
The observer sees GOP Sens. Luther Olsen and Alberta Darling as potential stalemate breakers. "They are somewhat toward the moderate wing of their caucus, so you could see deals cut with them and Democrats on the committee," predicted the observer.
